Experiment 2 detail

Regime Detection, Round 1

First comparison between the operating live detector and a more structured phase-aware candidate.

Current live detector

simple_live_v2

Still powers the operating branch

New candidate

phase_aware_v1

First structured phase-aware detector

Best structural verdict

phase_aware_v1

Score -142.56

Step 24 regime source

simple_live_v2

Untouched by this step

Purpose

Why this step exists

Core evidence

Detector	Agreement	Transitions	Avg segment days	Short segments <7d	Bull share	Bear share	Sideways share
simple_live_v2	47.44%	1164	1.36	94.51%	12.19%	12.42%	75.40%
phase_aware_v1	28.24%	149	10.59	41.33%	41.30%	44.39%	14.31%

Manual transition reference: 7

Current snapshot

Detector	Latest regime	Bar time	Close	24h return	7d return	Dist from 200MA
simple_live_v2	sideways	2026-03-15T15:00:00Z	2093.59	0.97%	7.73%	2.54%
phase_aware_v1	bull	2026-03-15T15:00:00Z	2093.59	0.97%	7.73%	2.54%

Verdict