Manual ETH Regimes + Scoped Experiments

Manual regime map provided by Gordon, plus 5 ETH breakout experiments scoped to those regimes.

Regime snapshot

Bear avg

-3.39%

Bull avg

-12.72%

Sideways avg

-15.96%

Manual regime segments

Regime	From	To
bear	08.11.21	13.06.22
sideways	14.06.22	09.10.23
bull	09.10.23	11.04.24
sideways	11.04.24	16.12.24
bear	16.12.24	07.04.25
bull	07.04.25	18.09.25
bear	18.09.25	12.03.26

Experiment definitions

Experiment	Runs	Mean return	Best segment
exp5_1h_bw36_h6_t005	7	-5.69%	11.65%
exp3_15m_bw36_h6_t005	7	-8.03%	4.06%
exp2_15m_bw24_h6_t004	7	-8.20%	3.86%
exp1_15m_bw24_h4_t004	7	-12.42%	2.00%
exp4_1h_bw24_h4_t004	7	-13.91%	3.99%

Segment summary

Segment	Regime	Runs	Mean return	Best run
bear_2021_2022	bear	5	-5.74%	2.27%
bear_2024_2025	bear	5	-8.00%	1.64%
bear_2025_now	bear	5	3.57%	7.09%
bull_2023_2024	bull	5	-23.00%	-18.21%
bull_2025	bull	5	-2.43%	11.65%
sideways_2022_2023	sideways	5	-11.52%	0.13%
sideways_2024	sideways	5	-20.41%	-10.68%

Top results

Segment	Experiment	TF	Total return	Trades	PF
bull_2025	exp5_1h_bw36_h6_t005	1h	11.65%	53	1.36
bear_2025_now	exp5_1h_bw36_h6_t005	1h	7.09%	24	1.72
bear_2025_now	exp3_15m_bw36_h6_t005	15m	4.06%	54	1.17
bear_2025_now	exp4_1h_bw24_h4_t004	1h	3.99%	45	1.16
bear_2025_now	exp2_15m_bw24_h6_t004	15m	3.86%	71	1.12
bull_2025	exp4_1h_bw24_h4_t004	1h	3.50%	78	1.07
bear_2021_2022	exp2_15m_bw24_h6_t004	15m	2.27%	107	1.04
bear_2021_2022	exp1_15m_bw24_h4_t004	15m	2.00%	116	1.04
bear_2024_2025	exp5_1h_bw36_h6_t005	1h	1.64%	18	1.12
sideways_2022_2023	exp2_15m_bw24_h6_t004	15m	0.13%	231	1.00
bull_2025	exp3_15m_bw36_h6_t005	15m	-1.14%	85	0.96
bear_2025_now	exp1_15m_bw24_h4_t004	15m	-1.15%	76	0.96

Conclusions

Best average experiment: exp5_1h_bw36_h6_t005.
Best segment-level result was bull_2025 with exp5 (1h bw36 hold6 th0.005).
Sideways regimes were the weakest overall.
Directional recent phases looked better than older sideways phases.