Comparisons

Strategy Comparisons

Side-by-side public comparison of the current operating branch and the exits-only comparison branch.

Baseline excess vs hold

n/a

Baseline minus ETH buy and hold

Exit V2 excess vs hold

n/a

Exit Variant A minus ETH buy and hold

V3 excess vs hold

n/a

V3 minus ETH buy and hold

Excess uplift

n/a

Exit V2 excess return minus baseline excess return

Headline verdict

Leaning baseline

Exit Variant A is leading on return so far.

Core metrics

Side-by-side comparison

Metric	Baseline Live Detector	Exit Variant A	V3 Policy Branch	Interpretation
Strategy return	76.22%	115.14%	51.70%	Headline cumulative result
ETH buy & hold	n/a	n/a	n/a	Passive benchmark over the same full period
Excess vs buy & hold	n/a	n/a	n/a	What the strategy added beyond just owning ETH
Latest equity	1.7622x	2.1514x	1.5170x	Current compounded equity
Max drawdown	-12.22%	-14.93%	-4.24%	Lower magnitude is smoother
Trade count	58	54	33	Checks whether exits changed participation too much
Win rate	56.90%	51.85%	72.73%	Frequency of winning trades
Profit factor	2.15	1.94	5.64	Gross profit divided by gross loss
Average bars held	16.00	26.35	24.00	How aggressively each branch exits
Exit behavior	Time-based only	stop_loss: 18, take_profit: 21, time_cap_48_bars: 15	proxy_time_or_rule_exit: 33	Shows how the richer exit logic is actually behaving
Deep dive	Open active deep dive	Open exit V2 track	Open V3 branch	Jump into the relevant detailed page

Interpretation

Same entries, same regime source: only exits change.
Passive benchmark: ETH buy and hold is now the anchor, not short rolling windows.
Current leader: Baseline on excess return vs hold among the two mature branches.
V3 note: V3 is now visible in the comparison table, but still represents an early proxy branch rather than full operational parity.
Generated: 2026-06-09T13:10:40Z

Decision use

Judge branches by what they add above passive ETH ownership, not just raw cumulative return.
If the exit variant keeps a higher excess return over time, it earns promotion consideration.
If it only wins on raw return but not on excess value after benchmark context, be more skeptical.