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Step 17 — Locked baseline validation

What: validate the locked baseline across assets, slices, and cost assumptions. Why: confirm it is not a single-asset or single-period accident.

Mean return by asset

Mean return by cost profile

Mean return by slice

Best validation rows

Conclusion

• The locked baseline held up across ETH, BTC, and SOL, strongest on SOL and ETH.
• It remained positive under stress costs on average.
• It remained positive out-of-sample from 2025.