Step 9–10 — Validation + Router stack

What: robustness validation, then first rule-based live detector and router. Why: confirm the winners are not fragile accidents.

Detector accuracy

47.50%

Live router return

60.87%

Live router PF

2.46

Live router max DD

-15.14%

Robustness by rule and asset

Rule	Asset	Runs	Mean return	Best run
bear_rally_base	SOL_USDT	9	125.39%	365.97%
bear_rally_base	ETH_USDT	9	36.21%	65.50%
bear_rally_base	BTC_USDT	9	6.97%	20.01%
bear_rally_tight	ETH_USDT	9	31.99%	69.51%
bear_rally_tight	BTC_USDT	9	-49.30%	-41.93%
bear_rally_tight	SOL_USDT	9	-50.30%	-31.06%
bear_rally_wide	SOL_USDT	9	67.43%	211.49%
bear_rally_wide	ETH_USDT	9	54.05%	120.11%
bear_rally_wide	BTC_USDT	9	5.47%	35.05%
bull_dip_base	SOL_USDT	9	77.52%	145.02%
bull_dip_base	ETH_USDT	9	45.90%	71.21%
bull_dip_base	BTC_USDT	9	16.02%	21.97%
bull_dip_tight	ETH_USDT	9	17.63%	42.84%
bull_dip_tight	SOL_USDT	9	6.86%	35.13%
bull_dip_tight	BTC_USDT	9	2.16%	10.64%
bull_dip_wide	SOL_USDT	9	41.20%	84.25%
bull_dip_wide	ETH_USDT	9	21.83%	29.99%
bull_dip_wide	BTC_USDT	9	10.28%	17.27%

bull if dist_200 > 8% and 7d return > 5%; bear if dist_200 < -8% and 7d return < -5%; else sideways