Experiment 3 detail

Exit Optimization, Round 2

Local refinement around the Step 1 exits-only winner to test whether the edge survives nearby.

Step 1 winner
pct_tp_7_sl_3p5
106.25%
Step 2 best
pct_tp_7_sl_4
124.42%
Best refined candidate
pct_tp_7_sl_4
124.42%
Baseline-beating candidates
4
Out of the 9 local-grid variants
Local search

Why this local grid makes sense

VariantTake profitStop loss
pct_tp_6_sl_36.00%3.00%
pct_tp_6_sl_3p56.00%3.50%
pct_tp_6_sl_46.00%4.00%
pct_tp_7_sl_37.00%3.00%
pct_tp_7_sl_3p57.00%3.50%
pct_tp_7_sl_47.00%4.00%
pct_tp_8_sl_38.00%3.00%
pct_tp_8_sl_3p58.00%3.50%
pct_tp_8_sl_48.00%4.00%

Center the search on the Step 1 winner pct_tp_7_sl_3p5 instead of running a wider brute-force sweep.

Move only one step in each direction around the winner: 6%, 7%, and 8% take-profit with 3.0%, 3.5%, and 4.0% stop-loss.

This yields 9 tightly related candidates, enough to test whether the Step 1 result is a local ridge rather than a single lucky point.

Keep the same entry logic, same costs, same data, and same 48-bar time cap so Step 2 stays a true exit-only refinement.

Reference points

Reference checkpoints

ReferenceKindTotal returnLatest equityMax drawdownWin rateProfit factorTrades
baseline_fixed_hold_16baseline86.59%1.8659x-4.19%58.93%2.4156
pct_tp_7_sl_3p5step1_winner106.25%2.0625x-3.67%50.88%1.8457
pct_tp_7_sl_4step2_best124.42%2.2442x-1.50%52.83%2.0453
Core evidence

Refined candidate ranking

VariantTPSLTotal returnDelta vs baselineDelta vs Step 1 winnerMax drawdownWin rateProfit factor
pct_tp_7_sl_47.00%4.00%124.42%37.83%18.17%-1.50%52.83%2.04
pct_tp_6_sl_46.00%4.00%111.47%24.88%5.22%-2.91%53.45%1.88
pct_tp_7_sl_3p57.00%3.50%106.25%19.66%0.00%-3.67%50.88%1.84
pct_tp_7_sl_37.00%3.00%89.58%2.99%-16.67%-3.20%46.55%1.75
pct_tp_8_sl_48.00%4.00%86.53%-0.06%-19.72%-5.78%50.98%1.84
pct_tp_8_sl_3p58.00%3.50%84.01%-2.58%-22.24%-7.80%49.06%1.76
pct_tp_6_sl_3p56.00%3.50%81.59%-5.00%-24.66%-5.00%50.00%1.65
pct_tp_6_sl_36.00%3.00%80.69%-5.91%-25.56%-4.58%46.77%1.65
pct_tp_8_sl_38.00%3.00%64.19%-22.41%-42.06%-7.39%44.44%1.62
Verdict

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